Is rent going up in Orange County?

The short answer

OC rents are up roughly 2-3% YoY on average in 2026, with wide dispersion by city. Irvine and the coastal corridor are still grinding higher. Anaheim and Santa Ana have flattened. Most of the central inland OC market is moving sideways within a 1% band.

For per-city numbers updated monthly, see /forecast/.

What is driving the dispersion

1. Supply timing. The Platinum Triangle delivered 1,100+ units in the last 18 months. Anaheim absorbed it but rent growth flattened. Irvine's Great Park rollout is metered against absorption by the Irvine Company; rents kept climbing.
2. Employer concentration. Tech-and-healthcare cities (Irvine, Newport Beach) sustained income growth. More tourism-and-services cities (Anaheim) saw weaker wage growth.
3. School-district pull. Persistent premium in Irvine, Tustin, Mission Viejo. Pull is unchanged but unmeasured outside the rent data itself.
4. Mortgage rates. Still in the high 6s. Buyer-to-renter pipeline remains jammed shut, which keeps the renter pool deep and supports the floor.

Where rents are actually falling

Three pockets within OC are softer YoY:

• Newer luxury inventory in the Platinum Triangle (Anaheim). Concessions of 1-2 months free are showing up. Effective rent down ~3-5%.
• Coastal short-term-rental-adjacent inventory. Slower vacation demand has pushed some operators back to long-term rentals, which pressured class-A coastal pricing.
• Older inventory in north OC. Class-C buildings that did not invest in updates are losing tenants to better-priced renovated units.

The 2026 forecast

Our Holt-linear-trend model is projecting another 1-3% across most OC cities over the next 6 months, continuing the trailing trend. The model is a baseline, not a guarantee; macro shocks (rate cut, tech layoffs, supply wave timing) move things faster than monthly data can register.

For the latest per-city forecast, including the 6-month-ahead month-by-month projection, see the forecast pages.