Most rent-vs-buy calculators get OC math wrong because they ignore what your down payment would earn if you didn't tie it up in a house. This one doesn't. Pre-loaded with April 2026 OC defaults — $925K median, 6.75% mortgage rate, 3.5% rent growth, 6% expected return on the saved down — and rebuildable for any submarket.
Defaults reflect Apr 2026 OC market: $925K median home, 6.75% mortgage rate, 3.5% rent + appreciation, 6% expected investment return on the down payment if rented. Excludes income tax effects, transaction costs (~6-8% on sale), and lifestyle differences. Real underwriting should consult a CPA. Free OC analysis: contact NGC.
Two numbers fight each other in this comparison. On the buy side, the mortgage builds equity and the house appreciates. On the rent side, the $185,000 you didn't sink into a down payment is sitting in a brokerage account compounding. Most online calculators show you the first half and skip the second, which is how they end up declaring buying the obvious winner even when the underlying math is closer to a coin flip.
What this tool does, in order: it totals every dollar you'd pay to rent for your chosen horizon (with annual rent growth applied), totals every dollar you'd pay to own across the same horizon (mortgage P&I, property tax including Mello-Roos, insurance, HOA, and a 1%/yr maintenance line), then nets each side against what you'd actually walk away with at the end — home equity for the buyer, the grown investment portfolio for the renter. The verdict on the right is the difference.
If you'd rather not invest the saved down payment — if it would sit in a checking account — set the rate of return to 0.5% and re-run. The buy side wins faster in that scenario, which is honest and worth knowing.
Run the defaults and the gap shows up immediately. Monthly all-in cost of owning a $925K OC home at 6.75%: about $5,800. Monthly rent for the average OC 2-bedroom: $3,500. That's a $2,300 monthly delta in cash outflow, and it's the gap that keeps buying expensive on a short horizon no matter how the appreciation math shakes out.
Two things shift the picture over time. The buyer's mortgage payment is fixed, so as rent grows 3 to 4% a year, the gap closes from the rent side. And every month of mortgage payments builds a little more equity, while appreciation does the rest. At 3.5% rent growth and 3.5% home appreciation with a 6% expected return on the saved down payment, the crossover usually lands in year 7 to 9. Below that, rent wins; above it, ownership pulls ahead and keeps pulling.
Submarket changes the crossover meaningfully:
Six things sit outside the math:
At April 2026 conditions — $925K median home, 6.75% mortgage rates, $3,500/mo average 2BR rent — renting wins on a 5-year horizon in most OC submarkets. Buying wins past roughly year 7 to 9 once the equity stack catches up. The break-even moves based on your specific submarket and what return you can actually earn on the down payment if you rent.
Typical break-even at current conditions is 7 to 9 years. Newport Beach and Laguna Beach run longer — closer to 10 because the price-to-rent ratio is wider on the coast. Anaheim and Santa Ana run shorter, 5 to 7, because the buy side is cheaper relative to local rent. Run the calculator with your numbers; the year you cross matters more than any submarket average.
For a rough first pass, yes. The two inputs that matter most are your actual rent and the price of the home you'd actually buy. Change those, then run.
No, and that's a real limitation. Mortgage interest deduction (capped at $750K of principal), the $10K SALT cap, the primary-residence capital-gains exclusion, and Prop 13 stability all push toward buying. After-tax math typically tightens the gap by 5 to 15% depending on income bracket. For a real decision, run this, then talk to a CPA.
OC home prices have averaged about 4 to 5% annual appreciation over 25 years, with heavy cyclicality. 3.5% is the conservative default we ship with. 5% is moderately optimistic. Anything north of 7% assumes 2020 to 2022 conditions repeat, which is a bet, not a forecast.
